On 9th of November, 2024 Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto meets China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. Prabowo attended high-level diplomatic talks and issued 2024 joint statement, which to address longstanding maritime disputes in the South China Sea and Strengthen bilateral cooperation. The joint statement acknowledging overlapping maritime claims in the Natuna islands. The diplomatic talks were through formal discussion emphasizing legal recognition of disputes, and potential course of action for collaborative conflict management. While joint statement acknowledged of disputes highlighting a diplomatic shift, it raises question: What motivated Prabowo to formalize these disagreements with rising superpower like China? Will Prabowo gambit pay-off.
The Maritimes disputes:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have been expert in presenting maps to underscore the importance of Chinese perceptive. Few years back China launched a new version of map with “Nine-Dash Line” later Ten dash lines claiming the entire South China Sea. The reason for claiming of the reasons: the fishing environment, where sea has been major fishing hub, then the oil and natural gas reserves on international waters. Most of nations in South China Sea claim a fraction in South China sea, but China claim everything. Lastly, almost 30% of global trade including 40% of the energy shipments passing through with an estimated $3.4 trillion worth of trade.
The issue is where the Nine Dash Line claims Natunas, which is integral part of Indonesia according United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS). Which allow to Natunas to be part of Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). On 2016 China coast guard vessels intervened as Indonesia attempted to seize Chinese fishing boats. Later Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson issued a statement:
“Indonesia has no territorial claims over China’s Nansha Islands, and China fully agrees that the Natuna Islands belong to Indonesia.”
This clearly state China stands on Nansha Islands, but Indonesian counter-part claim the islands as per UNCLOS.
Prabowo Gambit:
Over the past years, Indonesian policymakers have previously carried the idea of joint cooperation in the Natunas with China, including Foreign Minster Marty Natalegawa in 2014, and Coordinating Minister of Maritime Affairs Luhut Panjaitan in 2016, this is the first time a formalized in writing. The reasons were to shift stance from denial to a proactive diplomatic strategy, allowing to maintaining the Chinese relationship. Which allow secure China’s investment in Indonesia’s domestic developed particularly in electric vehicle (EV) value chain. Further, enable Indonesia to pursue joint resource management agreements, safeguarding interests avoiding tensions in sea. While formal recognition of disputes leverages the regional influence for Indonesia as ASEAN’s push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
In conclusion, the Prabowo Gambit is likely to fail due multiple reasons and past incidents of China dominates over other countries through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recently, in Peru China opened its Chancay port, first on Latin America. While the Peruvian officials ensure that it would be mutual benefit rather than benefiting one sided. Then is wide open statement from Prabowo regarding Chinese aggression and dominance. The Prabowo gambit is vague without addressing issues of dominance and ensuring that it would mutual benefit rather than debt trap.
